Selection, Disclosure, and Persistence in Japanese Foreign-Exchange Intervention

Abstract

Japanese foreign-exchange intervention is selected in unusual market conditions and followed by operations, information releases, and subsequent news. This paper organizes those stages using 69 pre-2026 episodes, daily USD/JPY, and a strictly lagged Japan–U.S. two-year rate-alignment measure. A frozen matched-counterfactual design fails its common-support gate: 13 of 50 primary risk sets survive the caliper, while 9 of 21 covariates remain materially imbalanced. The analysis therefore reports a selection equation and conditional deployment and directional-persistence associations rather than average causal effects. The selection equation detects no alignment association with entry (bootstrap p = 0.577). Conditional on intervention, the estimated first-day amount association is 25.2%, but its deployment-family Holm-adjusted p-value is 0.198. Alignment coefficients are 0.41, 0.60, and 0.83 log-change percentage points at 5, 10, and 20 days; the three-horizon Holm family does not reject (adjusted p = 0.109). Longer-horizon paths may combine operation, disclosure, and later policy or news responses; the daily design does not separately identify disclosure effects. A locked spring-2026 episode shows a large initial movement followed by substantial decay. The contribution is a transparent account of selection and conditional path evidence, with an explicit boundary between reported-result auditability and complete computational reproduction.

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