Monetary normalization, institutional portfolio adjustment, and yen carry unwinds.
Yen appreciation is not a sufficient statistic for a carry unwind. Official intervention, monetary repricing, global-dollar movements and portfolio adjustment can generate similar currency outcomes while implying different f…
I show that domestic government-bond acquisition coexisted with continued overseas investment and changes in external investment form during Japan’s monetary normalization. Monthly transactions, quarterly financial accounts,…
This paper measures how quickly higher interest rates can pass through Japan’s government debt and the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet without treating those channels as one consolidated fiscalcost estimate. It separates four …
Claims that Japanese capital is ‘coming home’ are usually made from aggregate cross-border flows. I ask whether that aggregate sign is a sufficient statistic for repatriation. Using monthly Ministry of Finance transactions i…
This design paper starts from a simple empirical difficulty: the same yen appreciation can be produced by very different shocks. Market commentary often compresses official intervention, a carry-trade unwind, JGB repricing, …
Japanese foreign-exchange intervention is selected in unusual market conditions and followed by operations, information releases, and subsequent news. This paper organizes those stages using 69 pre-2026 episodes, daily USD/J…
Using 69 Japanese intervention episodes, this paper separates event-day USD/JPY squared-return risk from subsequent windows. Frozen multiplicity-adjusted tests detect neither pooled level differences nor delayed risk transfe…
Market commentary often compresses a rise in Japanese government bond yields into a single causal chain: yen funding becomes more expensive, carry trades unwind, and global risk assets reprice. This paper tests the empirical…
Japanese foreign-exchange intervention is often evaluated by the exchange-rate movement on the intervention day. This paper argues that the relevant policy outcome is the persistence of the intendeddirection response after t…
Rising Japanese government bond (JGB) yields are often treated as direct evidence that yen-funded carry trades are becoming uneconomic and that Japanese capital will return from foreign assets. That interpretation conflates …